The following headlines are 100% true…

  • “East Madison was the ONLY place in the Greater Madison area in 2018 selling, on average, for more than list price!”
  • “The average sale price in Shorewood Hills, in March, 2019, tops $1.25 million!”
  • “The average sale price in Oregon in March, 2019, falls 35.79% compared to one year earlier!”
  • “The average sale price in Cottage Grove in March, 2019, skyrockets 24.2% from March, 2018!”

…and 100% misleading.

 

Cottage Grove saw a huge increase in March, 2019, because only 2 smaller homes were sold in March, 2018, artificially lowering the average sale price in March, 2018. Similarly, in Oregon, 6 smaller homes were sold in March, 2019. In Shorewood Hills in March, 2019, only 2 homes were sold…1 of them for over $2,000,000.

 

The statement about East Madison is the least misleading. It technically was the only area (that I pulled data for), on average, to sell for more than list price. We all know that some, even many, homes are selling for more than list price in all areas, but on average, the sale to list price ratio is closer to 99%. East Madison came in at 100.43% for 2018, based on 1,270 single family home sales.

 

 

So take any statistics that you hear with a grain of salt, and question everything. To have any meaning, the sample size has to be significant. 2 homes selling in one month in an area does not give a complete or accurate picture. That’s the problem with monthly averages…the sample size is usually too small. That’s also the problem when you drill down into neighborhoods, versus cities/villages or counties.

 

Also keep in mind that statewide or regional stats, which are statistically large enough to be valid, don’t accurately represent the local or neighborhood markets.

 

Looking at the data can produce some fun anomalies. We wanted to be sure YOU knew of these anomalies and can be educated in them as well as in the actual stats as seen below. 

 

One of the experts of RE/MAX Preferred, Tim Krueger, pulled together some stats for single family home sales in the Greater Madison Area. Here’s what he uncovered…

  • Aside from Shorewood Hills and Maple Bluff, Waunakee has the highest average selling price:  $462,073 in 2018.
  • Mcfarland had the biggest difference in average sale price from 2017 to 2018:  +15.12% (Does this mean the average home in Mcfarland went up 15% in value?…not necessarily).
  • Monona was only area that showed depreciation (-2.99%), or at least a lower average sale price from 2017 ($349,062) to 2018 ($338,634).
  • The average sale price in 2018 for Fitchburg ($367,178) is higher than the average sale price in West Madison ($356,852).  I didn’t expect this, but it’s accurate.
  • The average sale price in 2018 in West Madison is $100k higher ($100,315 to be exact) than East Madison.

Actual 2018 data (Average Sale Price & # of Sales)…

  • $356,852 (1,360)               West Madison (does not include Middleton, Fitchburg or                                                   Shorewood Hills)
  • $256,537 (1,270)               East Madison (does not include Monona or Maple Bluff)
  • $909,780 (26)                     Village of Shorewood Hills
  • $721,502 (45)                     Village of Maple Bluff
  • $462,073 (203)                   Village of Waunakee
  • $433,962 (183)                   City of Middleton
  • $370,926 (192)                   City of Verona
  • $367,178 (298)                   City of Fitchburg
  • $356,409 (142)                   Village of Oregon
  • $353,547 (139)                   Village of Mcfarland
  • $338,634 (82)                     City of Monona
  • $337,665 (75)                     Village of Cottage Grove
  • $311,494 (142)                   Village of Deforest
  • $303,252 (502)                   City of Sun Prairie